HindeSight Letters #92 September 2022 - NEWSLETTER
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OVERVIEW
Our overview features analysis, research & opinion on the latest news and current affairs and is a window into understanding factors that shape markets.
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CONTENTS
OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
HINDESIGHT PORTFOLIO SELECTION
OVERVIEW
The 1998 film, “Sliding Doors” is just a romantic comedy-drama film, with alternating story lines, showing two paths in the central character’s life could take depending on whether she catches or misses a train. I can’t help but think of that film with relevance in our current times amid the onslaught of shocking headlines;
• European living standards to plummet with spiraling energy prices
• US continues to fund Ukrainian war at $1.5bn a month
• Sanctions mainly against Russia continue to challenge supply lines in goods and finance
• Russia mobilising reservists amid referendums in disputed areas in Ukraine
• UK government reprimanded by International Monetary Fund for unprecedented fiscal stimulus budget, while inflation is raging
• Collapsing Sterling currency and sharply rising mortgage rates makes UK look like a banana republic
• Liz Truss’s Tory government spending 5%+ of GDP to cap energy bills
• Nord Stream gas pipelines suspect sabotage by Russia/US, (or another power?) as all other undersea cable installations put on high alert
Etc, etc, etc.
Assuming there will be historians still about in the future to dissect the minutia and “what-ifs” have led the world to generate these current headlines that obviously, have the potential to get worse, much worse, I’m sure they will do a much better job than me but, for now, I can have my own thoughts. Clearly, many of these current events will draw their creation, directly from Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine and the subsequent decisions, primarily led by the US, to help arm Ukraine to fight for their sovereignty, despite the disputed lands in the South- East of the country and enforce harsh sanctions on Russia.
• Was Russia provoked into invading Ukraine by US-led NATO’s constant expansionism policy and US geopolitical actions?
• Did the US believe a war was needed to keep the West from doing business with their long-time bogyman?
• Did Russia act on the belief that Ukraine should be retained within the old Russian Empire and not be courted by the West?
In 2015, The Guardian wrote that Ukraine was the most corrupt nation in Europe. Zelensky’s high approval rating was on a platform that promised reforms, but it is debatable how successful these reforms were with oligarch power not much different from Russia.
Source: Statista
And it doesn’t take much to join the dots….
War…..Supply lines/Sanctions…..Energy/Food prices soar….More inflation….
Huge interest rate rises…. Economies and populations in dire straits….
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