HindeSight Investment #96 January 2023 - Newsletter - Read Here
CONTENTS
OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
HINDESIGHT DIVIDEND UK - PORTFOLIO #1 DEC/JAN 23
OVERVIEW
In the summer of 1914, prior to the start of WW1, there was the real possibility of negotiations to avoid the worst conflict in human slaughter and again in 1916, to stop the continued human carnage of the subsequent two years but the European belligerents and the US, who weren’t yet involved in the fighting, just couldn’t manage it, until finally the Armistice came in 1918.
All wars ultimately end, and in the aftermath, the hatred and the reasons subside as we try to live together again on our small planet. WW2 stands out historically to me, as one of the few wars where countless negotiations and compromises were proposed but Hitler really believed he could be truly victorious and early gains on the battlefields saw the populace stand behind him, if begrudgingly. Ultimately, six years later, it led to an unconditional surrender and true victory for the Allies, and the collapse of the Nazi regime and the country. It should be obvious to a blind man to see (not our current line of politicians/clowns) that this isn’t likely to have that outcome with the current European conflict.
Rudyard Kipling’s prose, “If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs”….frequently comes into my mind regarding the current actions on both sides relating to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I generally despair, but as Captain Blackadder would say, “Who would notice another madman in all this?” Were all our current ‘leaders’ playing hookay when the history lessons were going on?
I imagine in the end of this futility and if the madness isn’t allowed to escalate, that negotiation will be on Russia holding on to the south-eastern areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine not being able to join NATO, maybe an agreement for a de-militarised zone and a UN peace keeping agenda. Obviously, this was on the table in March 2022, prior to a quarter of a million deaths but that’s human history for you. Public opinion in democracies often forces countries to the negotiating table as the body bags are repatriated. But, in the West, we don’t have to worry on that front-yet, because apart from printing more money to send more weapons, the people who are dying aren’t us. So, we can thrive and spout on naive principles rather than deal with reality of trying to end more slaughter and find a compromise.
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