HindeSight Investment #109 March 2024 - Newsletter & Podcast - READ HERE
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CONTENTS
OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
HINDESIGHT DIVIDEND UK PORTFOLIO
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OVERVIEW
Most of my active travelling for business and especially pleasure was a good few years ago now but the memories are still there and the experiences of different money exchange at the time. Crossing the Berlin Wall, from West to East many times in the 1980’s where there was a requirement at the border to change a minimum amount of (West German) Deutsche Marks currency into (East Germany) Deutsche Marks at the official 1-1 exchange rate, but the real rate of exchange on the grey streets was multiple times that. My memory is of being able to buy 10 bottles of beer in the East for the same as a single bottle of beer in the West, fun for a day or two on our visas! A similar experience in Russia in the early 1990’s where changing US dollars to rubles made you feel like a king in ‘wealth’ terms. Unfortunately, there was not much to buy at any price, even food. Long before the current food fasting fashion, once I had to go without food for three days, with just vodka and cheap Soviet cigarettes for sustenance!
But, it was also in the 1990’s when I can remember regularly getting stopped at UK customs to be searched and potentially charged import duties for my purchases of US products coming back from New York. At GBP/USD close to 2-1, and general low prices in US as well, my scrunched-up, ‘worn-looking’ Ralph Lauren shirts were dirt-cheap buys compared to the UK at the time. At 80 USD/JPY, I wasn’t the only one, as the Japanese were there en-masse too, hoovering up anything they could find.
Unfortunately, Sterling has weakened much since then and there are few places to visit nowadays that seem that cheap to the UK traveller, apart from maybe Japan because the yen has been the real loser. Today in downtown Tokyo, you will find foreign tourists steaming in as well. Not just is the Japanese lack of inflation for 20 years but the currency is at extremes on any PPP basis, but most especially against the USD. At 152 USD/JPY, with the general price level still low, some US analysts are comparing prices to 1969 in the US.
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